AGP Executive Report

Markets and Rates: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned interest rates could rise despite a weakening economy, as UK borrowing costs face fresh pressure. Crypto Sanctions: Britain targeted three exchanges and payment firms accused of helping Russia evade restrictions, widening its crackdown on illicit financial networks. Banking Security: A London man was jailed for his role in a SIM-swap scheme that stole almost £200,000 in cryptocurrency from four BT customers. London Listings: Airtel Money began trading on the London Stock Exchange, with its share sale potentially raising £582m. Digital Gilt: The government named six banks to lead its first digitally native gilt issuance, planned for early 2027.

Public Investment: The Scottish National Investment Bank faces a nearly £40m loss after portfolio company M Squared Lasers collapsed, adding to scrutiny of taxpayer-backed investments. Revolut’s US Push: CEO Nik Storonsky says a US primary listing was always the goal. The fintech, valued at about $115bn in a recent share sale, is not considering an IPO before 2028. Rates and Borrowing: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned rates could rise despite a weakening economy, as UK borrowing costs hit a 28-year high ahead of the Budget. Crypto Sanctions: The UK sanctioned Cryptomus, Heleket and TokenSpot over alleged links to Russia’s wartime economy. Chainalysis linked the payment processors to more than 15,000 illicit counterparties. Operational Resilience: The Bank of England and UK Finance led 38 major banks and market operators in a cloud-outage exercise, urging firms to strengthen responses to severe disruption. Lending Technology: Nivo launched an AI case coordinator for UK specialist lenders, automating broker enquiries and document gathering.

Crypto Sanctions: The UK added crypto exchanges and payment firms to a 38-designation Russia sanctions package. Cryptomus and Heleket were treated as one business to prevent users shifting between the services. Payments: Mollie launched Pay by Bank in the UK using GoCardless infrastructure, offering direct bank payments at checkout and plans for wider European rollout. Banking: HSBC is reportedly planning deep cuts to its UK wealth business as it expands AI use. Digital Finance: The UK is taking another step towards issuing its first digitally native government bond. Markets: Oil’s rise above $105 a barrel is pushing up UK borrowing costs, while the Bank of England governor has urged the government to address market concerns in its budget.

Markets and Mortgages: Oil surged above $104 a barrel amid Middle East shipping attacks, pushing UK bond yields higher. Thirty-year gilt yields have topped 6%, raising pressure on mortgage and borrowing costs. Banking and AI: HSBC is reportedly planning deep cuts to its UK wealth business as it expands AI use, putting financial adviser roles in focus. Fintech Funding: UK stablecoin infrastructure startup Noah raised $38m in a seed round, as digital finance attracts investor backing. Digital Gilts: The UK has named six banks to lead its first digitally native government bond, targeted for early 2027. Major Deal: The Weston family, backed by Fairfax, agreed to buy Boots for £6.7bn, bringing the pharmacy chain back under family ownership. Savings: Around 45,000 Lifetime ISA savers were penalised more than once in 2024/25, losing an average £760 each.

Banking Shake-up: HSBC is reportedly planning to cut around 70% of UK wealth-adviser roles as it expands its use of AI. UK bank shares also fell as bond yields rose. Big-ticket Deal: Canada’s Weston family, backed by Fairfax, agreed to buy Boots for £6.7bn, covering 1,800 UK and Irish stores; CIBC and Morgan Stanley are arranging the financing. Markets & Investment: Investors are moving from equities into bonds ahead of the Budget, while Hargreaves Lansdown warned against raising capital gains tax. Digital Finance: Six banks have been appointed to lead the UK’s first digitally native government bond, planned for 2027. UK payments startup Noah raised $38m to expand its stablecoin infrastructure. Savings & Access: NS&I raised British Savings Bond rates to 5.17%, as planned branch closures renew concerns about access to in-person banking. Regulation: UK courts quashed the Libor convictions of five former Barclays traders, overturning a long-running rate-rigging case.

HSBC AI job cuts: HSBC is consulting on “deep, wide and brutal” changes to its UK wealth management unit, with around half of management/specialist roles and up to ~70% of financial advisers expected to go, as the bank pushes AI tools for richer-client service. Budget jitters for investors: UK retail investors stepped up selling in September amid rumours of a capital gains tax shake-up ahead of John Healey’s 28 October Budget, with Hargreaves Lansdown warning against “penalising investors” via higher CGT. Regulation update: The PRA proposes automatic increases to 128 regulatory thresholds across banking and insurance from 2031, aiming to reduce manual compliance churn for firms near current cut-offs. Identity & compliance tech: Shufti Partners with DeGaming to embed AI KYC/AML checks into player onboarding for Web3 iGaming operators. Household finance pressure: Lloyds reports UK house prices flat at 0% growth in September as mortgage rates near 6% and Budget uncertainty weigh on demand. MOT cost shock: Proposals could lift MOT fees to at least £95, ending 16 years of unchanged pricing.

Cyber Risk: ASOS shares slid ~12% after customers received a hacker alert claiming the retailer had “fully compromised” its Snowflake instance; ASOS says it’s investigating “unauthorised activity” and warns some basic personal data may be affected, but no payment details or passwords are believed compromised. Open Banking Identity: GOV.UK One Login is adding open banking for identity verification, with Ecospend (FCA-authorised, owned by Trustly) set to run the service to Feb 2029, aiming to roll out in 2027. Tokenisation Watch: State Street says collateral mobility is the “killer app” for tokenisation, while stressing that legal and regulatory certainty is key for scaling adoption. Markets/Banking: Barclays and other banks are in focus as investors react to UK mortgage and rate pressures; Bank of England policymaker Mann warns inflation could stay entrenched. Corporate Finance: Informa is buying Clarion from Blackstone for £2.24bn to expand B2B live events, including ICE Barcelona. Energy Bills: Chancellor John Healey is preparing a budget intervention to cut costs for poorer households, with an energy discount likely to be a major plank.

BoE Watch: Catherine Mann says inflation is “embedded” in the UK economy and warns it could hit 4% around year-end, raising pressure on interest rates. Savers: NS&I lifts fixed-rate British Savings Bonds to up to 5.17% AER for five-year terms, as it targets higher net financing. Energy Storage Deal: BW ESS and Danske Commodities sign a 10-year optimisation deal for a 200MW/857MWh Midlands BESS due online in Q4 2027. Fintech & Compliance: Shufti launches Geolocation Compliance for regulated gaming, combining identity checks and jurisdiction-specific geofencing in one workflow. Retail & Consumer Tech: Evri begins a trial of Europe’s first two-legged autonomous delivery robot in Barnsley. Corporate & Markets: Cayman funds and structures reportedly bring £99.3bn into the UK, with Cayman’s share of inward FDI rising sharply. Construction: S&P Global PMI shows construction contraction easing in September, but housing remains the weakest area amid high borrowing costs. Diplomacy: UK warns it may expel 27 Israeli diplomats if Israel shuts the East Jerusalem consulate. Public Finance & Retirement: Research finds Britons expect to work 5.3 years longer than they want before retiring, widening pressure on pensions.

Banking & Regulation: Halifax is closing 26 branches before end-October and is also phasing out its app/online services as customers move to Lloyds digital platforms, raising fresh access concerns for elderly and vulnerable customers. Digital Safety & Data: X told a London court Ofcom’s Online Safety Act data request is the most burdensome it has faced, as the regulator seeks detailed moderation and user-viewing figures. Personal Finance: HMRC issued a “final day” reminder to register for Self Assessment to avoid a £100 fixed penalty. Wealth & Tax: Bloomberg analysis says wealthy individuals are continuing to leave the UK in large numbers as tax changes and uncertainty bite, with departures now exceeding the remaining UK-listed billionaire wealth. Fintech/Finance Ops: A Sixthfin survey of UK CFOs finds the close is still about confidence in numbers (not speed), with 67% prioritising reliability and 84% trusting AI for repetitive accounting tasks. Energy & Investment Infrastructure: Scottish Renewables backs the Great British Grid goal of faster connections but warns grid charges and planning delays could undermine investor confidence. Defence Spending (Policy Impact): Conservatives unveiled a £10bn “Britannia Shield” Iron Dome-style missile-and-drone defence plan, funded via benefit and housing benefit changes.

UK Macro & Rates: S&P Global’s UK services PMI edged down to 52.1 in September, but the bigger story was cost pressure: fuel-driven input inflation hit a three-month high and firms raised prices at the fastest pace since May, while employment fell for the 24th month running. Household Finance: A blow for borrowers as five-year fixed mortgages hit 6% for the first time in over three years, while the DWP urged pensioners to check Pension Credit eligibility ahead of a week of action. Regulated Finance: The FCA’s motor finance redress scheme faces a two-day Upper Tribunal case management hearing, with motorists waiting for clarity on next steps and timing. Fintech & Banking Tech: Barclays is expanding its use of Anthropic’s Claude across software development and banking operations, aiming for wider adoption by end-2026. Market/Investment Infrastructure: Iress has integrated its mortgage and protection sourcing data into Access FS Elev8, pushing adviser sourcing into existing workflows. Institutional Expansion: South Street Securities Holdings expanded in the UK via an FCA-authorised MiFID subsidiary, South Street Global Ltd.

Revolut’s Banking Push: Revolut has surged to become Europe’s most valuable fintech challenger, valued at $115bn as it expands retail banking licences and aims to compete with legacy giants. Markets Shock: A global bond selloff has driven borrowing costs to multi-decade highs, with US 10-year yields climbing to the highest since 2002 and raising pressure on mortgages and government debt. UK Banking Access: More branch closures are underway, including 28 bank branches shutting in October (with Lloyds and Halifax among those affected), as customers keep shifting to apps and online services. Care Home Deal: CareTrust REIT has agreed to buy 45 UK care homes for about £1.1bn, using a mix of forward equity and credit facilities. Crypto & Regulation Watch: HMRC is rolling out new cryptocurrency rules from May 31 2027, while UK regulators continue to tighten the framework for digital assets. AI Cost Reality: 51AIpower argues that “free” AI APIs still carry real compute and electricity costs, and pitches participation via power plans.

Banking App Migration: Halifax starts shutting down its app from 5 October, moving customers to the Lloyds app in stages, with digital access ending 1 November. Fintech Valuation Watch: Revolut’s $115bn private valuation puts it in the same league as major bank groups, even as it still earns far less per customer and keeps lending relatively small. State Pension & Tax: HMRC is using bank data to check state pensioners’ savings interest and may send bills if it exceeds allowances, while DWP confirms October payments for older and younger state pensioners plus bonus payments before Christmas. Inheritance Tax Shake-up: From April 2027, unused pension funds and death benefits enter IHT for the first time, driving a rush to gift cash ahead of the change. Fraud & Scams: New research says banking scam attempts are increasingly happening on mobile, with purchase scams the most common and investment/romance scams rising. Regulation & Crypto Events: UN:BLOCK Fintech in Riga (15 Oct) will focus on agentic payments, AI-driven commerce, MiCA licensing and stablecoin rules, with direct regulatory access sessions. Housing Costs Pressure: Lloyds analysis flags Trafford as the least affordable borough in the North West to buy, underlining the squeeze on buyers and renters.

Banking Tax Tensions: UK cabinet ministers warn Chancellor John Healey against a bank tax raid ahead of the Budget, arguing it could hit investment and growth. Savings & Customer Deals: Barclays rolls out £600 free cash for eligible UK current account switchers, while another Barclays offer pushes higher interest on savings accounts. Energy Cost Pressure: Andy Burnham faces calls to protect the poorest households as Energy UK warns bills could rise to around £2,100 in early 2027. Winter Fuel Payment Timing: DWP says eligible pensioners will get letters in Oct/Nov and most payments in Nov/Dec, with higher amounts for some over-80s. Crypto & Regulation Watch: UK FCA opens the crypto authorisation regime, tightening oversight as firms prepare for 2027 rules. Tokenisation Momentum: Lloyds reports 71% of finance leaders expect tokenisation to reshape financial services. Wet Wipes Ban: A plastic single-use wet wipes ban is set to roll out across the UK from Dec, with England’s start in May 2027. Fraud & Scams: A Southport mother is jailed for an Instagram counterfeit designer scam involving £158k cash found in baby clothes; PSNI also flags £814k lost to romance scams in Northern Ireland. UAE Investment Warning: UAE officials warn Manchester City punishment could reduce appetite for future UK investment commitments.

Pensions shake-up: Labour’s Andy Burnham says the state pension triple lock will be adjusted from 2030, with the earnings element changed—sparking claims pensioners could lose about £545 a month versus prior projections. Retirement tax clarity: The government also moved to calm rumours about the 25% pension tax-free lump sum ahead of the Autumn Budget, after concerns that uncertainty could trigger withdrawals. Housing finance pressure: UK sellers face a buyer-favouring market as listings rise and mortgage approvals fall, with mortgage approvals down year-on-year and stock near a 12-year high. Tokenisation push: Lloyds reports 71% of UK finance leaders expect tokenisation to reshape financial services, while banks look at faster settlement. Prediction market warning: The FCA is engaging internationally over Polymarket bets on whether HSBC and Lloyds will fail, raising market integrity concerns. Broadband investment structure: Octopus’s inheritance tax service will split out fibre broadband assets into a dedicated fund after performance and withdrawal issues. Visa rules bite: New guidance sets conditions for the adult dependent relative family visa, while tighter student visa rules are hitting international recruitment at a UK university with nearly 4,000 African students. Cost of living hit: Northern Ireland households face higher gas bills after SSE Airtricity raised prices by nearly 19%.

Skilled Worker visa tightening: The UK says Skilled Worker holders can only bring two dependant categories—partner and children—with strict cash thresholds held for 28 days and extra care-worker/role cut-offs. Counter-terror charge: Police charged Joshua Kerry with preparing terrorist acts, including against Reform UK’s Nigel Farage, adding to an existing murder case over Ann Widdecombe. Football finance spillover: Manchester City has lodged a “comprehensive” appeal after being found guilty of Premier League financial rule breaches worth over £900m; sanctions could include points deductions or expulsion, with UK–UAE investment ties now under strain. Tokenisation momentum: Lloyds survey finds 71% of UK finance leaders expect tokenisation to reshape services, with faster settlement and better collateral/liquidity the top benefits. AI governance warning: Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey argues central banks need a legally enshrined right to intervene in AI before oversight becomes impossible. Crypto crime: Surrey Police report an armed home invasion in Tadworth forcing pregnant victim access to crypto wallets, with suspects still at large. Bond market stress: France debt fears are rising as investors price growing default odds, pushing spreads and yields higher. Savings squeeze: BBC reports some Gen Z workers opting out of pensions to cover today’s bills, highlighting pressure on household finances.

Banking & Mortgages: A global bond sell-off pushed UK 30-year gilt yields above 6%, feeding through to higher mortgage rates and fresh payment shock for borrowers, with Reuters flagging some deals set to treble monthly costs. Inflation Watch: The Bank of England’s Decision Makers’ Panel showed firms’ one-year inflation expectations edging up and uncertainty rising, adding pressure ahead of the next rate decision. City & Markets: Investors are rotating out of France and into Britain, while UK borrowing costs hit multi-decade highs and equity sentiment stays fragile. Fintech & Regulation: The FCA published tokenisation feedback and called for input, while stablecoin rules in Europe face renewed pressure after a 50,000+ letter campaign to loosen MiCA restrictions on rewards. AI in Finance: BT launched “AI from BT” for UK businesses, and the Bank of England warned AI could amplify market risks. Competition & Telecoms: The CMA raised concerns that the nexfibre/Netomnia broadband deal could harm FTTP competition. Payments & Retail Banking: Barclays is axing 132 high-street ATMs, leaving at least one town with no cash machines. Energy & Investment: Actis plans a $2bn renewable energy push in India, and the “Great British Grid” idea targets faster network build-out. Skills Gap: A UK tech skills survey says gaps could cost firms ~£380,000 a year and that AI adoption is outpacing workforce literacy. Sports Finance Spillover: Manchester City’s Premier League financial breaches appeal looms, with wider political and integrity concerns spilling into HMRC scrutiny.