AGP Executive Report

Budget and Banking: Chancellor John Healey doubled the bank-profit surcharge from 3% to 6% for 15 months, helping fund a £100 energy payment for 20 million households. Markets took the Budget in their stride, with UK bank shares rising as the increase came in below some forecasts. Fintech Payments: Revolut Pay has partnered with Just Eat Takeaway.com to offer checkout rewards across the UK and Ireland. Banking and AI: The Bank of England warned that reliance on US technology firms for AI could leave British banks vulnerable. Lender Plans: Santander UK plans further cost cuts after pre-tax profit fell 6%, while targeting savings from its TSB takeover.

Budget Watch: Chancellor John Healey is preparing a cautious Budget as borrowing costs climb to their highest level since 2008. Banks may face higher taxes, while more than £20bn is earmarked to support investment in AI, defence and green energy. Savings & Investment: Reports say Healey will keep the annual cash ISA limit at £20,000, reversing plans to cut it to £12,000. Investment firms say the cut risked discouraging saving without steering people towards stocks and shares ISAs. Banking: Standard Chartered raised its 2026 income and returns outlook after third-quarter pre-tax profit jumped 27% to $2.25bn. Santander UK’s nine-month profit fell 6% to £1.2bn, despite a boost from its TSB takeover; it is targeting £400m in merger savings by 2028. Payments: Visa and Mastercard face a £5bn UK claim alleging excessive fees charged to smaller retailers. Business Climate: UK firms are less pessimistic about growth than at any point in two years, though the CBI says cost pressures and cautious consumers still weigh on activity.

Budget and markets: Britain issued five-year debt at its highest borrowing cost since 2008 ahead of Wednesday’s Budget, adding pressure on John Healey to reassure investors. Business confidence is weak: the British Chambers of Commerce says just 17% of firms plan to increase investment, while business distress has reached a two-decade high. Banks and tax: HSBC’s third-quarter profit rose 32%, but its shares fell, renewing calls for a bank levy. The lender says it is under no pressure to move its UK headquarters. Digital banking: Revolut launched unsecured personal loans in Britain from 6.9%, stepping up competition with high-street banks. The Bank of England has also ordered a review of Revolut’s internal controls. Fund innovation: Aviva Investors tokenised a share class of its £22bn sterling fund on the XRP Ledger, bringing blockchain technology further into mainstream UK asset management.

Banking: HSBC’s third-quarter pre-tax profit rose 32% to $9.6bn, but revenue missed forecasts and its shares fell nearly 7%, weighing on the FTSE 100. The results have revived calls for a bank tax ahead of Wednesday’s Budget, while Scottish finance leaders warn a levy could hurt growth. Cost of Living: UK shop price inflation climbed to 2.1% in October, its highest in two and a half years. Food inflation rose to 2.9%, adding pressure on households and the Chancellor as retailers warn rising costs are increasingly being passed on. Business Finance: More than 738,000 UK businesses are in significant financial distress, the highest level since records began in 2004. Hospitality, construction and property are among the sectors under strain. Fintech: Revolut has launched unsecured personal loans in Britain, stepping up competition with high-street banks. Aviva Investors has also committed £50m to a tokenised sterling fund share class on the XRP Ledger.

Budget & Banks: With Wednesday’s Budget approaching, the UK is braced for limited giveaways as borrowing costs rise. Reports suggest Chancellor John Healey may increase taxes on banks, prompting warnings that a raid could raise mortgage costs and hurt lending. Digital Banking: Revolut has launched UK personal loans, stepping up competition with high-street lenders. Financial Crime: The Insolvency Service has hired Quantexa to uncover hidden links in economic crime investigations, while the data firm has also secured a multi-million-pound anti-fraud deal. Regulation: The FCA is consulting on guidance for the UK’s new transaction-reporting regime. UK banks also face more than 10,000 complaints over crypto payment restrictions, putting controls under scrutiny. Markets: Bank shares have come under pressure ahead of the Budget and interest-rate decisions, with investors weighing tax risks against lenders’ profits.

Digital Banking: Revolut has entered UK personal lending, offering loans of £2,000 to £25,000 at rates from 6.9% to 29.3% APR, as it takes on high-street lenders. Investment Partnerships: Man Group and Japan’s Meiji Yasuda will expand their partnership, with the insurer raising its commitment to Man strategies to ¥200bn (about £940m) over three years, focused on private credit. Budget Watch: Banks face a possible tax rise in Wednesday’s Budget, with opponents warning it could push up mortgage costs. Banking Pressure: UK banks received more than 10,000 complaints in three months over restrictions on crypto-related payments, bringing scrutiny of their policies. Market Movers: Computacenter lifted its FY26 adjusted pre-tax profit forecast to at least £425m after a stronger-than-expected quarter, supported by UK and North American demand.

Crypto Banking: UK banks received 10,092 complaints over crypto-transfer restrictions in three months, according to figures gathered through an online complaints tool; the data is not representative of all customers. The FCA is also seeking views on decentralised finance as it prepares a crypto regime for 2027. Customer Services: Revolut apologised after an outage left some balances potentially incorrect, saying customers’ money and data remained safe. Household Finances: Consumer confidence fell 11 points to -24 in October, its sharpest monthly drop since the pandemic. With inflation at 3.5%, a rate rise is back in view as 1.8 million fixed-rate mortgages come up for renewal this year. Banking and Growth: The Budget is expected to give two state-backed lenders a £20.4bn capital boost, while Barclays is targeting about 5,000 job cuts as it expands its use of AI.

Bank Jobs: Nationwide will cut another 275 roles as it integrates Virgin Money, following 600 redundancies in June. The move comes as Barclays presses ahead with plans to shed 5,000 jobs, citing efficiency gains from AI. Budget Watch: A reported £2.2bn bank-tax increase could raise mortgage and loan costs, while the Chancellor faces a tough backdrop: inflation hit 3.5% and national debt topped £3tn. Regulation: The FCA is considering lighter vetting rules for finance employees and has opened consultations on crypto and decentralised finance. The Payments Systems Regulator is also looking to simplify rules for firms seeking access to payment systems.

Crypto Regulation: The FCA is consulting on updated financial-crime guidance for crypto firms, including customer checks, transaction monitoring and blockchain analytics. Responses are due December 24; the guidance would not create new rules. Public Investment: The Government plans to give two state-backed lenders a £20bn capital boost, aimed at supporting business and infrastructure investment. Banking Jobs: Barclays is planning around 5,000 job cuts as it expands its use of AI, despite reporting a £2.3bn profit. Household Finances: A Financial Ombudsman ruling has led NatWest to agree to refund £103,200 to customers who lost money investing in failed jeweller Vashi, after the bank was found liable for not acting on warning signs. Economic Outlook: UK retail sales fell 0.4% as shoppers cut back, adding to pressure ahead of the Budget, with inflation at 3.5% and public debt above £3tn.

Banking Jobs: American Express plans to cut about 3,500 roles worldwide, citing efficiency and AI, days after Barclays announced 5,000 job cuts. Budget & Investment: Former Goldman Sachs chief and Revolut board member Michael Sherwood has moved his tax residency to Jersey ahead of the Budget, renewing concern about wealthy investors leaving the UK. The Chancellor is also expected to boost two state-backed lenders by £20bn. Household Finances: Retail sales fell 0.4% in September and consumer confidence suffered its steepest drop since the early Covid period, adding pressure ahead of next week’s Budget. Fintech & Regulation: The FCA says crypto apps may need licences when algorithms choose trade routes, while its chief has warned AI poses a major financial-crime risk. Banking Access: More than 750 bank and building society branches have closed in Scotland since 2015, leaving some rural customers facing long journeys for in-person services.

Budget and Markets: UK investors head into the Autumn Budget and HSBC earnings after September retail sales fell 0.4% and consumer confidence slumped. October business activity picked up, but the FTSE 100 slipped as oil prices and AI spending worries weighed on markets. Banking Jobs: Barclays plans to cut 5,000 roles by year-end despite reporting £2.3bn in profit, with AI part of its drive to reduce costs. Regulation: The UK plans to relax some post-crisis rules on bank bosses, while a new banking watchdog will review the sector’s competitiveness. The FCA has also opened consultations on DeFi rules ahead of 2027. Fintech and Access: A Google Cloud outage disrupted UK bank apps and public services, underscoring operational risks; Cash Access UK and Morrisons are partnering on a banking hub in Heywood. Trade and Investment: UK Export Finance is adding £1.6bn in financing capacity for Oman, taking its total available support there to £7bn, as the countries advance a £1bn AI data-centre project.

Banking Jobs: Barclays plans to cut 5,000 roles by year-end as it leans on AI to reduce costs; its investment banking results also missed forecasts. Economic Signals: UK business activity grew at its fastest pace since February, with the composite PMI at 53.1 and hiring returning to growth. But retail sales fell 0.4% in September, while consumer confidence suffered its steepest drop since the Brexit vote, outside the pandemic. Rates and Markets: Higher business costs and September’s 3.5% inflation have strengthened expectations of a Bank of England rate rise, while global shares wobbled as investors questioned the returns on heavy AI spending. Fintech Risks: The FCA chief warned that threats to financial stability are escalating alongside the AI boom, as banks grapple with unauthorised AI agents accessing customer accounts and the fallout from a Google Cloud outage that disrupted services. Investment: UK lawtech funding reached £226.9m in the first half of 2026, but the money went to fewer firms, with three companies attracting 69% of the total.

Banking Jobs: Barclays plans to cut 5,000 roles by year-end as it leans on AI and technology to improve efficiency. Its third-quarter profit also missed forecasts after weaker investment-bank earnings. Regulation: The PRA and FCA proposed easing the Senior Managers and Certification Regime, including scrapping annual certification for about 139,000 staff. The changes could save firms £2bn over a decade, while FCA chief Nikhil Rathi warned AI is putting financial-system risks “on steroids.” Digital Resilience: A Google Cloud outage disrupted banking apps, while a serious PHP vulnerability prompted emergency website shutdowns. The UK is also planning stronger protection for subsea cables critical to financial services. Economic Pressure: Inflation rose to 3.5% in September and government debt passed £3tn, adding to pressure ahead of the Budget and strengthening expectations of higher interest rates. Fintech: LemFi expanded in the UK beyond transfers, adding savings and credit services for customers managing finances across borders.

Banking and AI: Barclays expects to cut 5,000 jobs by year-end as technology reshapes operations; third-quarter pre-tax profit rose 12% to £2.3bn. Economy and Budget: September inflation hit 3.5% and national debt topped £3tn, adding pressure ahead of next week’s Budget and strengthening expectations of higher interest rates. Digital finance: The FCA is seeking views on how to regulate decentralised finance and crypto ahead of a planned 2027 regime, while separately flagging weaknesses in firms’ AI governance. Operational risk: A Google Cloud outage disrupted services at several UK banks, including Halifax and Revolut, prompting European regulators to question the provider. Fintech investment: Starling Bank’s valuation was reported at £1.7bn as founder Anne Boden sold her remaining shares.

Economic Pressure: UK inflation climbed to 3.5% in September, its highest since November 2025, driven largely by fuel costs. The rise complicates next week’s Budget and has renewed expectations of an interest-rate increase; government debt has also topped £3 trillion for the first time. Crypto Rules: The FCA opened consultations on DeFi and crypto regulation ahead of a regime due in October 2027. Firms have until 18 November to respond. Startup Funding: The British Business Bank committed £2 million to Cambridge Capital Group to back early-stage UK technology firms through angel investment. Banking Resilience: A Google Cloud outage disrupted services at UK banks including Lloyds, Halifax and Revolut, renewing concerns about reliance on a small number of cloud providers. Payments Competition: The FCA is consulting on opening up Apple’s iPhone contactless technology, a move that could reshape access to tap-to-pay services.

Inflation and Budget: UK inflation accelerated to 3.5% in September, driven by fuel, while government borrowing reached £24.5bn and national debt topped £3tn. The figures add pressure ahead of next week’s Budget and strengthen expectations of a possible Bank of England rate rise. Banking Resilience: A Google Cloud outage disrupted Revolut and other UK banking services, highlighting how heavily financial firms rely on a small number of technology providers. Payments Competition: The UK regulator wants Apple to open iPhone contactless technology to rivals, a move that could reshape mobile payments. UK Investment: Australian investor IFM agreed to buy a controlling stake in Associated British Ports in a deal valuing the operator at more than £10bn. Fintech Expansion: LemFi added UK savings and credit products to its international payments platform, targeting customers whose financial lives span borders.